Better late than never
I have finally managed to put together my prediction for what remains of 2015:
Plymouth Citybus
- This year will finally see the swoops take over as the predominant livery in the fleet. This will be the result of both repaints and additions to the fleet.
- As part of the above we will see the extinction of the “Best Impressions” dark red front livery from the fleet.
- The 43/50 will be combined into one route as Gold Flash – or some other colour!
- Some new single decker's will join the fleet, probably Enviro 200s.
- More second-hand buses will join the fleet, probably quite a bit newer than the London DD fleet brought in so far. There have been rumours of ex Brighton & Hove Scanias and Go Ahead London Enviro 200s, I am happy to wait and see!
- Routes. I don't see much expansion beyond the City over the current network, but it wont contract either. Citybus will remain in Tavistock and Torpoint.
First Devon & Cornwall
- Repaints into standard First livery will slowly continue, possibly some additional branding for some services. First Plymouth name will be used more than First Devon.
- I don't expect any new buses so a continued trickle of Volvo single-deckers and one or two more Tridents will appear in Plymouth.
- There will finally be a new livery for Cornwall.
- Minor tinkering with Plymouth bus routes. No major new routes introduced.
- Tavistock – I believe (hope) that some sort of deal will be arranged to allow at least some later buses for Tavistock after the planned cutbacks.
- There will be increased competition in Cornwall with a slow move back into areas previously left to Greyhound.
Western Greyhound
- Western Greyhound WILL still be around at year end, but will have contracted back and hopefully be more settled and able to run all its services.
- Further second-hand buses will join the fleet and eventually there will be a new livery for the fleet although it will be a slow process.
Stagecoach
- The Plymouth presence will remain as it is now. The Gold fleet will grow slightly with more routes including one or two out of Exeter.
Other Operators
- Target will loose some routes but will regain some others, ending up with slightly less work in and around Plymouth.
- Jacketts will also be slightly smaller in Plymouth but may pick up additional work elsewhere.
- At least one independent bus operator in Devon will give up. (No I am not predicting who!). It could well be the Devon cut backs which bring this on.
Other Predictions
- Railways – lots of talk and no action on anything.
- Plymouth airport – Nope.
- The new Coach Station will be started and the council will finally make clear arrangements for coach parking on the outskirts of the City Centre.
- Not so much a prediction really, but major roadwork's will continue in the North of the City causing even more traffic congestion as major developments continue / start. With the Bircham Valley link road planned for next year and the on-going Marjon Link Road scheme and re-working of Derriford Roundabout all in the pipeline its going to be a fun few years!
Plymothian Transit
- PT will continue to post at least 4-5 posts a week. I hope to continue the longer more details posts that have been a recent feature with more maps and service details.
- The recent introduction of Cornwall Transit and Devon Transit has been popular and will continue.
- I always say this, but I will get out and about a bit more this year and take more photographs. I will certainly get down into Cornwall for a few visits and hopefully into parts of Devon.
- Plymothian Bus Services will continue to expand as a historical database of bus services in Devon & Cornwall.
As you may have picked up above, I don't see this year as having any major surprises. With money for transport being increasingly tight I just don't think there is much appetite for increased competition among the big players. That's not to say that they wont take advantage of any opportunities to expand to fill in gaps left by others.
As usual feel free to agree / disagree in the comments – and maybe even share your own predictions!
Recommended Reading
- Steves Bus and Train Page: Arriva Special
- Norwich Buses: First Great Yarmouth Dart arrives on loan to Norwich
- Public Transport Experience: A Traipse to Tiverton [4]
- East Norfolk Bus Blog: Norwich Interlude :
- Norwich Buses: Ipswich Buses trial Mercedes Benz Citaro K
- Ipswich Bus Blog: IPSWICH BUSES MERCEDES BENZ CITARIO DEMOSTRATOR/ODD SIGHTS ON TOWN ROUTES
- Great Yarmouth Shipping: Been a while
- Ian Visits: Weekly round-up of London’s railway transport news
- Steves Bus and Train Page: Mercedes Benz Demonstrator In Action
- Ipswich Bus Blog: BLOG STATEMENT/FLASHBACK FRIDAY
- East Norfolk Bus Blog: Borderbus To Split Its 146 Route :
- Dennis Basfords Rails Roads and Runways: ‘Scene’ Out and About on the 5th. of February 2015
- Public Transport Experience: A Traipse to Tiverton [5]
- Public Transport Experience: Bits and Pieces : Something for the Weekend A Strange Coincidence
- Norwich Buses: Photo Special: The lost operators of Norfolk
- Norwich Buses: Former Ipswich Corporation AEC Regent appears for sale on eBay
- Norwich Buses: Anglianbus vehicle disposals
- The Circle of London Blog: Abellio London Beddington Cross [BC]...New MMCs for the 109
- Steves Bus and Train Page: Weekly News Round
- Public Transport Experience: Snow, Snow; Thick, Thick Snow! And, Talking of Videos?
- Norwich Buses: Fleet Update - Norse
Pretty much agree with all of your thoughts. The difficulty is Western Greyhound. Firstly, I struggle to see why VOSA appears to be leaving them be and secondly, I can only see them contracting further. Whether they will see the year out, I don't know. I really hope they do but they're not going to win lengthy battles against First, so it really depends on how safe their contracted network remains and how robust their commercial elements are. They may look to return to coaching and pick up some schools work or buy another small local operator. They'll keep the existing livery; First will dither about a new Cornish livery, as going green (which I suspect is their ideal aim) won't be sensible all the time WG is around.
ReplyDeleteThree more predictions :
Delete1.VOSA will have one or more West Country outfits up for a PI - may not be the obvious choices ?
2.First win the battle for the main St Austell,Truro & Perranporth routes.
3Western Greyhound will sell all their remaining 2009/11 vehicles but survive to fight another day.
2 - that is the battle. Of course First will win - they will simply stay there and tough it out until WG collapse.
DeleteTake a look at WG services - nothing can be even breaking even looking at the passenger numbers. there is no commercial base any more at WG. there are NO new contracts in Cornwall for 4 years....
milehose is thinking on making the 43/50 into a green flash but they are not sure yet. there has been roomers that estover will lose the 50 and it will be made into a 43 and i think that will happen. so maybe a green flash as a 43 for 2015!
ReplyDeleteLast I heard was that its more likely Gold Flash - but I agree its most likely to keep the 43 number than the 50
DeletePlymouth has a Stagecoach Gold bus and if plymouth makes a GoldFlash it might confuse people with the Stagecoach Gold bus and the citybus
DeleteI don't think for one minute that a Citybus GoldFlash livery would look anything like a Stagecoach Gold. You can visualise what a GoldFlash would look like based on the existing red and blue versions, besides the Stagecoach buses have a lot of dark blue on them and who's to say that any GoldFlash would even be double-deck? It's not a problem. Are people currently confused between a RedFlash and a normal Citybus decker? Nah.
DeleteThey might decide not to use gold for branding/marketing reasons, but it'll hardly confuse passengers, presumably they currently manage to tell the difference between all the various red buses running on numerous different routes.
Deletei think there might be enviro 300s as for plymouth dont have any. and maybe a GreenFlash bus as a 50?
ReplyDeletethe 50 will run from ernesettle to derriford. i have heard it will be yellow flash, possibly ferrari yellow. but have also heard green AND gold, so who knows!
ReplyDeletethey are thinking on making a GreenFlash for the 50 and maybe a GoldFlash for the derriford to ernesettle
DeleteAnonymous 11 February 2015 at 10:44
DeleteThink you are miss-reading the bus route. The service would do the same as it is now, which is to link the 50 and 43 and run from Derriford - Estover - Leigham - Marsh Mills - Prince Rock - Royal Parade - Milehouse - St Budeaux to Ernesettle and back again.
Your post makes it seem as you thing there will be a green flash on the 50 route, and then from Derriford to Ernesettle another bus in Gold Flash.
I predict the closure of First Bus in Plymouth and a total collapse of Western Greyhound; both within six months. Possibly also a retrenchment of City Bus. I wouldn't be surprised to see Stagecoach moving onto city routes. But I am not brave enough to admit to my identity!
ReplyDeleteNo chance
DeleteAnon 9th Feb 19:19 . Well it appears you can look into the future. Both have these have come true, apart from the time frame which was right for Greyhound, but just short for First Bus. I wonder what you will predict next year!
DeleteJust going back through old posts. How right you were!!
DeleteWow - thats a bold prediction!
ReplyDeleteIt certainly is a bold prediction!
ReplyDeleteSurely a retrenchment by Citybus would benefit First - and a retrenchment by First would surely mean no retrenchment by Citybus.
Also, I think there would have to be a good sized opening for Stagecoach to set up base in the Plymouth area. I imagine that the four local operators are unlikely to leave gaps that Stagecoach could fill.
One we've heard before as on 1st October 2010..... "First will be out of Devon and Cornwall next year!!!"
ReplyDeleteFire the gun enough times, you may eventually hit a pheasant
Back in October 2010 it was pretty clear that First wanted out. That no longer appears to be the case
DeleteStagecoach are not likely to repeat their predatory project at Barnstaple in Plymouth. There are two big groups present here not one. Stagecoach do talk to Cornwall based on the Bude outstation. Thus 595 (+584?) and 420/480 would be possible in the right circumstances (like very short notice), but not competitively (576 seems a bit remote). If either First or Citybus were to be put up for sale then Stagecoach would just be one of many possible buyers. Either of those actually closing down looks unlikely. Go Cornwall I expect needs one summers experience at least before any big changes, but is being repackaged. Western Greyhound is a puzzle right now - need to see the new timetables and what cash they appear to have access to. First Kernow are in the lucky position that they can jump where and when they choose from a pared back position. In the way First are packaged, then what Webberbus does in Somerset makes a difference and I can't see the number of empty buses going on for ever. Small operators in Devon have already been cut back, but with further cutbacks to contracts at least one may end up with too little to justify carrying on. However change often creates a hole for someone to expand into as Turner's did with Carmel Coaches demise and Redwoods restarted bus work for Cook's and Carmel's cancellations.
ReplyDeleteStagecoach aren't going to make a move on Plymouth. They have no reason to. If they were that interested they'd have bought the First operation when it was available but the general consensus seems to be that they ran the rule over it and walked away. That doesn't mean that First can't make a go of things in Plymouth, they certainly seem to be surviving against many people's expectations but First and Stagecoach work in very different ways.
ReplyDeletecan confirm it will be yellow flash for the 50
ReplyDeleteSee how easy it is to confirm something without giving any proof.
DeleteYellowFlash logo will not work i tried making it and it worked on the Green and Gold ones more.
DeleteI have found this out from someone high up in citybus, I too work there, and my source is very reliable. bradley, IT WILL BE YELLOW FLASH. I have already had that confirmed from the same source, and they will be the current shape of enviro 400, not the MMC model.
ReplyDeleteyou will soon find out in april/may. so accept it and move on.
the rote 50/43 will most likely to be GreenFlash or GoldFlash! THE PLANS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THIS!
DeleteI've found out officially. It's going to be the grey flash on Torpoint. Battleship grey like the Navy's ships. They were going to name all the buses after Navy destroyers, but since they have not managed to force First off the route Citybus are going to name them all after Minesweepers instead. I've seen the mock-up from designers call bluestone. The fleet numbers are all huge on the sides like the numbers on ships in big black font.
ReplyDeleteyour right about that one but that might not happen for a while though!
DeleteI have just had it confirmed by someone within go ahead, that it will be service 50 ernesettle to derriford, and will be yellow flash. Am fed up of people THINKING they know wot they are on about. I actually took the time to contact go ahead themselves. so this is the end of the matter.
ReplyDeleteBlimey you do get worked up about nothing mike don't you! You took the time to contact Go Ahead did you ? mmm, the place you work you mean ? Maybe that's easy to ask the question...personally I do not give a hoot what colour the bus is as long as it turns up! Citybus service is rubbish with frequent no shows and dire customer service...try getting this right before painting the bus a pretty yellow colour i say, until you do I personally will stick with First or who in the main show better respect for customers, other drivers on the road and are more reliable, not to mention half the price. Rant over!
DeleteFirst more reliable? That must explain why I saw 3 different broken down First buses around Plymouth today.
DeleteIt would be a pity if it were to be 50 instead of 43 as the service number 43 for Ernesettle has been around more or less since Ernesettle was built.
DeleteConsidering Michael works for PCB, he probably knows alot more than most on here anyway, & will prob know alot more than he can let on, so why argue the toss with him, & dispute him!? At least he's got a job in PCB!
ReplyDeletethank you anon 13.02.
Deleteanon 8.26 u wanna stick with first u crack on.
Mark Horide from milehouse bus depot said it will be a yellow flash bus and im looking forward see the bus go pass my house when it comes out!
ReplyDeletekeith i think they might keep it as a 43 because that have a 40 41 42 42a 42b and it will make sense there to be a 43
ReplyDeletebradley, they are renumbering it 50, IT WILL NOT BE 43! i work for plymouth citybus and am part of a duo who do the destination blinds, and as such get info regarding routes and route numbering. so i know exactly what is going on. you just think u do. I too have seen the artwork for various flashes for the future, and yes there was a green flash in amongst it, but after seeing various green shades on panels prepared by pcb bodyshop, the MD didnt like green so was scrapped.
Deletei work at milehouse and i got shown plans for a Green Flash bus so i think they might use Green Flash in the future
DeleteI was on the 42 yesterday and whilst it was sat at royal parade someone got on asked if it was a first bus ( as it is painted blue) the driver said its not, its a city bus, she said ok i got confused thats all, im used to seeing blue, the driver then said well wait untill next month when we have yellow busses.
ReplyDeleteBut which buses will they be? The rest of the 12 plate Volvos plus others? New buses? A batch of darts? Anyone got any ideas?
ReplyDeleteAnyone know which bus/buses are currently in the spray shop for swoops?
Dart 39 is currently in the paintshop, to be followed by Dart 42.
Deletei thought they had fixed that already
DeleteLooking at the picture of the Wright/Volvo bus at the top of this posting, this is one vehicle which looks really smart in the Best Impressions livery - perhaps it is the chrome Wright logo which relieves the maroon which does it. The dark red front, thpouth, looked really depressing on a double decker.
ReplyDeleteI note that the forecast of Citybus having a go at Mount Batten does not feature in this year's predictions - are they cooling offn in their fight with First?
Agree that the Volvos do suit the livery where others dont so much. Its not bad on a Pointer but as you say, awful on the DDs.
ReplyDeleteI remain unsure about Mount Batten. Its clear that many passengers are not happy as the 2 often seems to have missing buses, if facebook is anything to go by. I think at the moment Citybus are busy with the Liskeard operations so probably are holding back on more expansion for the time being. Depending on how many new buses were are getting this year it might free up enough buses for a Mount Batten skirmish but I still suspect it wont be for a while.
VOSA now has 18 registration changes which provides some of the answers.
ReplyDelete43 Cancelled now 50, but 29 now 51 to match
10/11/12 to ?new/Liskeard(x593)/Bude(x576) with current 11 now 46
4 to Mount Batten - yes it is happening.
572 etc to 72,73,74 with 79 and new 78 Callington local
Lots of detail to explore and discuss.
A few new registrations and route changes by Plymouth Citybus gone up today on VOSA. Highlights include:
ReplyDelete4, New route to Mount Batten
10, New route, Royal Parade to Royal Parade
11, New number for Plymouth to Liskard
12, New number for Plymouth to Launceston/Bude
16, Route changes
21/21A, Timetable changes
33/33A, Route changes
43, Cancelled
50, Route changes (merged with 43)
51/51A, Route changes (although could be classed as new)
46,46A,46B, New number for service 42? Also 46 being used for Tavistock to Okehampton
72/73/74, new number for previous routes 572,573,574
78, New route, St Dominick School to Stoke, Climsland